Bestball Values & Discrepancies at Current ADP

Ezekiel Elliot 

ADP 130, RB 40 on Underdog

Ezekiel Elliot ended the 2023 season as RB32 last year. And he only took on a significant role after Rhamondre Stevenson's injury late in the year. When he had the backfield to himself, though, he surprisingly produced solid numbers. His blocking and receiving skills allowed him to stay on the field for all 3 downs, catching a lot of passes actually leading the Patriots in receptions in 2023. He may never be a RB1 again, but he definitely has RB2 upside as the main back in Dallas with only Rico Dowdle likely to take carries away. So with a potential 3 down role and a lot of TD equity on a high powered offense (40 catches and 10 TDs are totally realistic), it's easy to see a path for him to well outperform his ADP at the end of the 11th round. In my latest Underdog draft, I picked him up in the 11th Rd as my 4th RB. 

Rashee Rice

ADP 83, WR 47 on Underdog

We all know why Rashee Rice's ADP has plummeted. But no matter where I look, his worst projection is 154 half ppr points finishing at WR36, and that's already taking into account the possibility of him playing only 14 games, whether that's due to injury or suspension. ESPN's half point ppr projections have him ending as WR27. And if he doesn't get suspended this season, which is likely as the NFL waits for the legal process to play out before they take action (which may not be until 2025), Rice will far exceed those projections. Buy the dip. His value is likely to continue to drop due to the uncertainty of his situation (his ADP actually dropped 1 spot already in the couple days I've been working on this post).

Baker Mayfield

ADP 164, QB 21 on Underdog 

Baker Mayfield finished as QB10 in total points last season. He surprised many by throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 TDs to 10 interceptions. He's going off the board currently as QB21 on Underdog. Even if he doesn't replicate exactly last year's numbers, there's no reason for him barring injury to not be a backend QB1 or top QB2. Meanwhile, you can draft him late in the 14th round. The Bucs returned everyone on offense, and the only change is Liam Coen as the new offensive coordinator. Regardless of the new system, Baker is still throwing to Mike Evans on the outside. Godwin is moving back to his natural position in the slot, so that's another reliable target in the middle of the field for him besides Cade Otton. Rachaad White will still be a safety valve coming out of the backfield. So unless he has a major regression, I can't see how he's not worth the chance that late in drafts. In one draft I just completed, I got Tua in the 13th as my first QB and Baker in the 14th as my 2nd QB, which to me is just beautiful (if you're like me and don't think paying up for a top QB will pay dividends this year). Up to that point in the draft, I was able to stack my roster with 7WRs, 4 RBs & a TE.

Evan Engram

ADP 76, TE 8 on Underdog 

Evan Engram was TE2 in half point ppr formats last season, yet he's being drafted as TE8 on Underdog. And why shouldn't he repeat what he did last year? The Jags lost Ridley to free agency and cut Zay Jones. Their additions were Gabe Davis, who has never garnered a consistent target share ever in his career as primarily a deep threat field stretcher. And they drafted Brian Thomas Jr, who has the potential to do it all with his size and speed, but will still be a rookie with a lot to learn and adjust to. Engram grew to be Trevor Lawrence's favorite target last year, particularly while Christian Kirk was injured. But even with Kirk healthy, Engram should be command a consistently high target share. May I also point out, Engram only scored 4 TDs last season. The only TE's to finish in the top 10 to catch less were Trey McBride & Taysom Hill. So I think there could be some positive regression there, as this Jags offense is poised to be more explosive overall and more efficient in the redzone where they really faltered last year, particularly down the stretch.